The Week

Drivers in the District of Columbia saw gas prices decrease by seven cents in the past week, while pump prices across the Washington, D.C. metro area decreased by two cents.

Today’s national gas price average is $2.16, down a penny in the last week, down three cents in the last month, and down 46 cents from this time last year. 

CURRENT AND PAST GAS PRICE AVERAGES

Regular Unleaded Gasoline (*indicates record high)

Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released long-awaited guidance on holiday gatherings. AAA continues to monitor travel trends and will release its Thanksgiving holiday travel forecast in November.

“Public health officials are discouraging family gatherings during the upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday travel season,” said John B. Townsend 2^nd, AAA Mid-Atlantic’s Manager of Public and Government Affairs. “If Americans heed this medical advice, and they ought to, some analysts hold it would increase the ‘prospects of a very subdued Thanksgiving travel season.’ That is to be expected in the wake of the ongoing pandemic.”  

At the very least, the 2020 holiday travel season will look a lot different this time around, travel agents say, all the while reading the tea leaves scattered in the teacup. It remains to be seen if this fall’s cheaper pump prices will incentivize travel during the upcoming Thanksgiving Day and Christmas/New Year’s holiday periods. Six weeks ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday travel season pump prices posted a weekly average of $2.17 for a gallon of self-serve regular across these United States during the week of October 10-23.    

This compares to a weekly average price of $2.36 per gallon in the nation’s capital, where the profit margin was 69 cents a gallon. It is one of the reasons that Washington, D.C. slipped to tenth place among the top ten “most profitable metro areas to sell and supply gasoline” across the USA, according to  the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), which provides daily fuel price data to AAA. 

In the wake of the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic, gasoline sales are around 85% of 2019 levels, explains OPIS. By the way, U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $2.61 per gallon in 2019. In terms of annualized retail pump prices, American consumers and motorists paid, in contrast, an average price of $2.897 per gallon in the decade. “US petroleum consumption fell 2.3% from August to 17.9 million barrels per day in September as the summer driving season ended, but the decline was the smallest for the month since 2014,” according to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute.  

Ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday and the year-end holidays, flight searches are up as of late, according to the travel industry. But that might just be wishful thinking on the part of would-be travelers yearning to be home for the holidays. Their reluctance to book a holiday flight now is understandable, given the uncertainty of traveling safely during a pandemic that is raging in nearly 40 states. Wistfully, they are adopting a precautious wait-and-see mindset. 

Still, “air travel demand saw a rebound of 5.5% month to month last week across the United States,” according to data from the U.S. Transport Security Administration (TSA). All-in-all “U.S. airline passenger volumes increased from the 68.5% below year-ago levels seen four weeks ago, to 63% below year-ago levels in the most recent week.” 

“According to A4A, the U.S. in domestic load factor averaged 61% in the most recent week, with an average of 74 passengers per flight,” reports OPIS. “In comparison, an Oct. 14 A4A report showed the U.S. domestic load factor averaged 57% for the week ending Oct. 2, with an average of 68 passengers per flight. Over the course of 2019, there was an average of 99 passengers per departure and an 82% domestic flight load factor.” 

At the close of NYMEX trading Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at $39.85 per barrel, $1.03 lower than last Friday’s close. Domestic crude prices increased despite market concern about increasing coronavirus infections worldwide, which could lower crude demand as countries impose new restrictions that will likely limit oil consumption. However, if demand concerns continue to weigh on the market, crude prices — and gas prices — could decrease. 

The Weekend

“Area gas prices are following the national average lead this week,” said Townsend. “Decreases in U.S. gasoline demand, supply and imports are pushing prices lower.” 

The Week Ahead

As temperatures begin to cool across most of the country, hurricane season is still in effect, not ending until November 30. This year’s hurricane season has been exceptionally active, but in terms of gas prices, low U.S. gasoline demand may have helped contain gas price impact when typically, hurricane season would have caused gas prices to spike.

AAA has a variety of resources to help motorists save on fuel:

• Shell Fuel Rewards Program for AAA Members: (https://www.AAA.com/Shell) gives AAA members nationwide a discount on gasoline at Shell stations when they join the Fuel Rewards® program.

• Fuel Price Finder (https://www.AAA.com/fuelfinder) locates the lowest fuel price in your area. 

• AAA Gas Cost Calculator (https://gasprices.aaa.com/aaa-gas-cost-calculator/) helps budget travel expenses. 

• TripTik Mobile (https://www.aaa.com/mobile) plots fuel prices along your travel route. 

• AAA's Member Rewards Visa® Credit Card (https://www.AAA.com/financial/AAAvisa.htm) accumulates double points on fuel purchases.  

Next Weekend Gas Watch: Friday, October 30, 2020

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AAA provides automotive, travel and insurance services to 60 million members nationwide and nearly 82,000 members in the District of Columbia.  AAA advocates for the safety and mobility of its members and has been committed to outstanding road service for more than 100 years.  The not-for-profit, fully tax-paying member organization works on behalf of motorists, who can now map a route, find local gas prices, discover discounts, book a hotel and track their roadside assistance service with the AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. For more information, visit  https://aaa.com