Are Long-Range Forecasts Trustworthy—and Can They Help You Plan a Vacation?
4 tips for planning your vacation around the weather
Booking a vacation well in advance can make a lot of sense. You often have more options on accommodations, restaurants and activities. You may even snag a great early-bird travel deal. But how can you be sure the weather will cooperate for a getaway that’s months or more away?
Since weather is always changing and forecasts are always being tweaked, planning a trip far out on the calendar can be tricky. That’s where long-range forecasts can help.
What defines 'long-range'?
A weather forecast becomes “long-range” starting at seven days in the future and anything beyond that point. Some of the most popular long-range forecasts fit into the seasonal category, such as winter outlooks or hurricane season forecasts.
Are long-range forecasts reliable?
Take a look at some weather apps, and you’ll see forecasts that stretch out 90 days or more! Can you actually trust them? Yes and no.
In general, the further out the forecast, the more likely it will change. That said, long-range forecasting is different from a shorter-term weather outlook that gives specific temperatures or conditions for a given day. Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, the lead US long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, Inc., says it’s more about noticing evolving patterns across the globe, analyzing how they will interplay with each other, and what that means for the larger weather setup down the road.
“That is the way I put a [long-range] forecast together, by connecting these dots,” says Pastelok.
Long-range forecasts have only gotten more accurate over time, adds Pastelok. He and his team use historic data to help them predict weather trends, and those records are updated every day. Plus, technology has advanced, paving the way for more detailed and reliable computer modeling.
How to plan a trip around the weather
So, how do you use this information to plan for a vacation? Whether your trip is weeks or months away, Pastelok suggests taking the time to learn about your destination. “It’s important geographically and climatologically to do your research on the best time to visit,” he says.
Here are some tips to help you plan for the weather.
Find out what’s typical
A simple online search will show you what kind of weather is typical where you’d like to travel. You can learn temperature trends, when the wet and dry times happen during the year, and when significant weather usually occurs (like snow or tropical or severe weather, etc.).
Great sites to check out for climate averages and long-range forecasts include the following:
Look at a map
Scope out the geography of your planned destination. Topography actually plays a significant role in how weather forms. “Do your research into your geographic areas because they do have separate types of microclimates. That’s important to know when you’re planning what time of year you want to go on vacation to that site,” says Pastelok.
Take a popular spot like the east coast of Florida, where daily showers are common in the summer months thanks to temperature contrasts between the land and ocean. For example, while you may see a shower icon repeatedly on a forecast for a place like West Palm Beach, that doesn’t mean the entire day is a washout. Rather, most of the day will likely bring sunshine after a brief morning shower.
Put trust in trends
Weather apps are a great resource, says Pastelok, but he cautions that much of their weather data is computer-generated and often not fine-tuned by human forecasters. Rather than taking weather app long-range forecasts at face value, Pastelok recommends looking at the big picture.
“Look where the temperatures spike for a period or go down. Or the weather looks like it’s getting wetter or drier,” he says. “Find those periods where you see trends instead of looking at the actual forecast printout.”
Seek out a long-range forecast
Weather outlets like AccuWeather put out seasonal outlooks year-round. These user-friendly reports can help you make educated decisions about when and where you book your next getaway.
Long-range forecasts aren’t a guarantee, but they can be the closest thing we’ll ever come to being able to bet on our vacation weather.